Our core and alternative economic risk scenarios

In our latest 10-year scenarios, we have combined our expectation that innovation will continue to affect growth and inflation in different ways with the possibility that markets will have to reckon with rising populism, which usually hurts long-term growth and raises inflation.

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Demographic trends set to disrupt global economy

The decline in working-age populations in the developed world could lead to a pick-up in wage growth, and hence in inflation and real interest rates in the coming decade. The move to cities, climate change and migration issues will also be significant challenges for policymakers and investors alike in the 10 years ahead.

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US economy has strong structural underpinnings

US productivity growth has been lacklustre since the global financial crisis, but we expect a modest shift higher in coming years as innovation spreads throughout the economy.

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The challenge of populism

By calling into question the two pillars of capitalism, free trade and free markets, the populist wave sweeping through the world is increasing political volatility and could contribute to higher inflation and lower growth.

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Rising inequalities: a source of populism

Growing income disparity is often seen as contributing to the rise in populism.

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China and EM equities: the challenges ahead

In this interview, Pictet Wealth Management analysts discuss the outlook for a slowing China and the pay-off between risk and returns in emerging-market equities.

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